The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Apply today! The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. Hover over a district for more information. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. 26th February 2023. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. Alaska. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. You can also view these ratings as a table. Senate. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. We rated every race in play in 2022. The party gained a net of nine districts. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. 100% remote. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . File history. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the Senate; with state elections . Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
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